Thursday, January 29, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Jan. 29)

Salaries are fairly low at the top tonight as only six players, four of which are bigs (PF/C), are priced at $8,000 or more, which includes brothers Pau Gasol ($9,300) and Marc Gasol ($8,000).

Both Gasol brothers have great matchups -- Pau vs. LAL and Marc vs. DEN -- and stacking them will be a popular strategy tonight. Marc's teammate Zach Randolph ($8,200) is a strong play as well as the Nuggets allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards and Z-Bo has 10 consecutive double-doubles.

If you load up on high(er)-priced bigs, the good news is there is plenty of value at guard tonight to allow you do so.

With that said, here are some DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Thursday's NBA games:

PG - Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (vs. MIL), $5,600: With impressive consistency for a rookie point guard, Payton scored an eight-game low of 26.5 fantasy points against the Grizzlies on Monday. Over that stretch, Payton has averaged 13.13 points, 8.0 assists and 2.13 steals per game. Although the Bucks have held opposing point guards to the fewest fantasy points this season, Payton does a number of different things to generate fantasy points.

PG - Langston Galloway, New York Knicks (at IND), $4,300: Playing 30 or more minutes in all five of his starts, Galloway has scored at least 32 fantasy points in four of those five games. Based on average production of 30.95 fantasy points per game as a starter, he's priced at 7.2 times his bargain-basement salary. During that five-game span, he has averaged 15.2 points, 2.0 three's, 5.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game. If Carmelo Anthony rests on the second night of their back-to-back, Galloway may need to shoulder more of the scoring load.

PG - Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. CHI), $3,800: Starting his third consecutive game at the point on Tuesday, Clarkson played more than 36 minutes, scored 18 (real) points and 28.25 fantasy points, all of which were highs this season. He has exceeded 20 fantasy points in two of his three starts and he just needs to score 19.0 fantasy points to reach 5x value.

PG - Beno Udrih, Memphis Grizzlies (vs. DEN), $3,200: If Mike Conley (wrist) misses another game, then Udrih is a strong value play even though Nick Calathes was more productive in their last game. That said, Udrih has played at least 20 minutes in five of his past seven games and has at least 22 fantasy points in four of those five games with 20-plus minutes.

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SG - Arron Afflalo, Denver Nuggets (at MEM), $6,100: Afflalo has scored at least 22.5 fantasy points in 13 of his past 14 games and has averaged 28.7 during that 14-game span. The Grizzlies have one of the league's best defenses and play at the fifth-slowest pace, but Afflalo has a high floor and scored 29.75 fantasy points in his first matchup against the Grizz.

SG - Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $5,400: The allotment of minutes by Jason Kidd is as difficult to predict as the allocation of workloads to running backs by Bill Belichick, but the Greek Freak has seen 33-plus minutes in five of his past six games. During that span, he has averaged 25.67 fantasy points per game -- or slightly less than 5x his salary (4.75). With his all-around statistical contributions, The Alphabet has upside for 35-40 points (and would be 1 and 2 in the player nickname rankings tonight).

SG - O.J. Mayo, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $4,400: With limited upside as a bench player getting less than 30 minutes per night, Mayo has still been consistent with at least 21.5 fantasy points in nine consecutive games and an average of 25.97 during that stretch. Mayo needs just 22.0 fantasy points to reach 5x value.

SF - Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $5,200: On nights with a large slate of games, I typically avoid the Bucks with the possible exception of Brandon Knight. On a night with four games, I'm more willing to roll with some Bucks in my lineups. That said, Middleton has scored at least 25 fantasy points in three consecutive games and in six of his past nine. Based on the options throughout the price scale tonight, small forward is my least favorite position, which means that Middleton will likely be my most-owned Buck tonight.

PF - David West, Indiana Pacers (vs. NYK), $6,300: Perhaps one of the least exciting options in daily fantasy basketball, West is consistently productive, which is exciting in its own way. In his past 25 games, West has scored less than 20 fantasy points only once and that one game was 19.5 points. During that same 25-game span, he's averaging 30.18 FPPG and has averaged a line of 13.12/7.28/3.56 with 1.0 steals and 0.8 blocks per game as well.

PF - Jason Smith, New York Knicks (at IND), $3,900: Smith had his first double-double of the season last night with 11 points and 11 rebounds while adding six assists and a steal. Smith has played 32-plus minutes in five consecutive games and he has scored at least 25.5 fantasy points in four of those games.

C - Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls (at LAL), $6,300: Although we shouldn't expect another 50 fantasy points, Noah had an 18/15 double-double with six assists and two steals in Tuesday's overtime win at Golden State. Noah has recently mentioned that he feels as healthy as he has felt all season and he should easily reach value in an exploitable matchup against the Lakers.

C - Zaza Pachulia, Milwaukee Bucks (at ORL), $4,600: If Ersan Ilyasova (groin) misses tonight's game, Pachulia may get a bump in minutes. (Pachulia has played roughly two minutes less over his past six games with Ilyasova in the lineup than he had in the previous 10 games without him.) Either way, he has a favorable matchup against the Magic, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Over his past 16 games, Pachulia is averaging 27.86 fantasy points, which is 6.06 times tonight's salary.

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