Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Jan. 21st)

In order to fit studs like DeMarcus Cousins ($11,100), Kevin Durant ($10,700) or LeBron James ($10,700) into our DraftKings lineups tonight, finding values at other roster spots is imperative.

Like most Wednesdays, it's another large slate (12 games) today, which increases the odds of finding value at other spots.

For this post, I will focus on players with a salary of $6,500 or less to highlight the mid- and low-priced players that I like for tonight's games.

With that said, here are some DraftKings values for Wednesday's NBA games:

PG - Jarrett Jack, Brooklyn Nets (at SAC), $6,300: With Deron Williams out, Jack remains a strong option among the mid-priced point guards. In his past eight games, Jack is averaging 32.19 fantasy points per game with 38.5 or more in half of those games including back-to-back games against the Wizards. During that eight-game span, Jack has averaged 15.63 points, 7.38 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 3.13 three-pointers in nearly 37 minutes per game. Meanwhile, the Kings have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

PG - Mo Williams, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. DAL), $6,200: Williams is coming off a disappointing performance (18 fantasy points in 29 minutes), but he had at least 25 fantasy points in the previous seven games with 42-plus points in three of them. Assuming that Ricky Rubio misses at least one more game, Williams has plenty of upside in what should be a fast-paced game. Both teams rank in the top-third of the league in terms of pace. (That said, I'll like Williams a little less if Kevin Martin (GTD) suits up tonight although he may be on a minutes restriction if he does.)

PG - Trey Burke, Utah Jazz (at CLE), $5,600: Burke has scored at least 22.75 fantasy points in 11 consecutive games and has averaged 30.68 points over that span. Burke is averaging 16.9 points, 5.1 assists and a steal per game during that span and gets a great matchup against Kyrie Irving and the Cavs, who have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

PG - Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (at DET), $5,400: Payton has now scored 40-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games and 30-plus fantasy points in four consecutive games. Arguably the best defender in last year's draft class, Payton has multiple steals in all four of those games, but he has surprisingly stepped up offensively with 22 and 19 points in his past two games, respectively. Over his past four games, he is averaging 16.5 points, 7.8 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game.

PG - Langston Galloway, New York Knicks (at PHI), $3,600: With three opportunities to start a point guard on DraftKings (PG, G and UTIL spots), that's typically a strategy that I use most nights and will do so again tonight in many of my lineups. There are plenty of great mid-priced options, as mentioned above, but Galloway is a much cheaper option that is likely to draw another start and no team allows more fantasy points to opposing point guards than the 76ers. Galloway has averaged 21.75 fantasy points in his five games with the Knicks including a pair of 30-point fantasy outings.

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SG - Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers (at PHO), $5,700: Matthews' minutes won't directly benefit from the injury to LaMarcus Aldridge, but his usage rate and shot attempts will. With Aldridge playing only 14 minutes before his injury on Monday, Matthews took a season-high 20 shot attempts including 12 three-point attempts. He now has 26 three-point attempts in his past two games. Dollar for dollar, Matthews may be my favorite play among SGs tonight. SG - Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (vs. LAL), $5,400: If Jrue Holiday (ankle) misses another game, that would benefit Gordon. Since returning from his own injury on Jan. 5th, Gordon has played 33-plus minutes in seven of eight games. In his past seven games, Gordon has scored a minimum of 22.5 fantasy points and he's averaged 27.57 per game over that span.

SG - J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers (vs. UTA), $4,900: Smith has averaged over 35 minutes per game in his past six outings with 17.0 points, 3.3 treys and 1.8 steals per game during that span. With at least 22.5 fantasy points in five of those six games, he has averaged 28.58 fantasy points over that stretch. Meanwhile, Utah has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

SF - Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers (at PHO), $5,400: Things haven't gone so well for Batum (and his fantasy/DFS owners), but that has led to a more modest price tag. Although he has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in four consecutive games, Batum could shoulder a little more of the load with Aldridge out. In addition, the Suns play at the third-fastest pace and rank fifth in most turnovers per game (15.3) and Batum is less of a scorer and more of a player that contributes across multiple stat categories.

SF - Jeff Green, Memphis Grizzlies (vs. TOR), $5,000: Excluding his debut with the Grizzlies, Green has scored 28.25-31.25 fantasy points with at least 30 minutes in his other three games with his new team. During that three-game span, he has at least 14 shot attempts each night and has posted an average of 16.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and a steal per game. The Raptors have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.

PF - Donatas Motiejunas, Houston Rockets (at GS), $5,500: In a game with a 218.0 over/under, there should be plenty of fantasy points tonight. Motiejunas has now scored double-digit (real) points in 12 consecutive games and has now scored at least 24.75 fantasy points in seven consecutive games. Against the Warriors on Jan. 17th, Motiejunas scored 29.75 fantasy points in less than 22 minutes, a 12-game low in minutes. Over the past 12 games, he has averaged nearly 30 minutes per game.

PF - Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (vs. NYK), $5,300: While he may lack some consistency, Noel has been getting consistent playing time with 30-plus minutes in six of his past seven games. Over his past four games, Noel has averaged 11.75 points, 8.25 rebounds, 2.5 steals and 2.25 blocks per game. Noel needs 31.8 fantasy points to reach six times his salary and he has scored 31.5 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games.

[Update: Noel (sick) has been ruled out for tonight's game.] 

PF - Channing Frye, Orlando Magic (at DET), $5,000: This play is contingent upon the status of Tobias Harris, who is considered a game-time decision for tonight's game. If Harris can't go, Frye should continue to benefit. In the five-game stretch that Harris has missed, Frye has averaged nearly 36 minutes and 27.95 fantasy points per game. Frye's shooting percentage (15-of-51, 29.4 percent) during that stretch has been awful, but 41 of his 51 attempts have been from behind the arc and he still has a minimum of 21.5 fantasy points in those games despite poor shooting.

[Update: Harris will play, but he may come off the bench.]

C - Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks (at MIN), $6,300: Typically Chandler isn't someone that finds his way into my lineups, but he now has three consecutive double-doubles with at least 35 fantasy points. Meanwhile, the T'Wolves have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season so Chandler has an excellent shot at reaching value once again.

C - Alex Len, Phoenix Suns (vs. POR), $4,800: With injuries to Robin Lopez and LMA, Len gets a favorable matchup against a Blazers' front court that lacks depth. Len is coming off his worst performance (21 fantasy points in 19 minutes) over his past seven games, but he had a minimum of 26 fantasy points with an average of 30.54 in his previous six games.

C - Chris Kaman, Portland Trail Blazers (at PHO), $4,400: Kaman had just 12 fantasy points in 19 minutes on MLK Jr. Day, but he averaged 28 minutes and 26.31 fantasy points in his previous four games. With the injuries in the Blazers' front court, Kaman should see close to 30 minutes tonight and he has averaged 1.05 DK points per minute this season.

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