Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Jan. 28th)

Q: When is it a bad idea to pay up for Anthony Davis?
A: Never.

The Unibrow has scored at least 52 fantasy points in six of his past eight games including 64.5 points in his last game against the Sixers on Monday. During that eight-game span, Davis has averaged 28.88 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 1.75 steals per game.

With a matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards, it's going to be risky to fade Davis ($11,000), who is priced higher than all players not named James Harden ($11,100).

To make matters more interesting, however, power forward has as much value as any other position tonight.

With that said, here are some DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Wednesday's NBA games:

PG - Jarrett Jack, Brooklyn Nets (at ATL), $6,000: With Deron Williams out again, Jack should see 34-plus minutes and he has scored at least 34.5 fantasy points in four of his past five games. Over that five-game span, Jack has scored 17.4 points with 6.6 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game. The Hawks are one of the best defensive teams in the league, but they have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

PG - D.J. Augustin, Detroit Pistons (at PHI), $5,800: In his second start following the season-ending injury to Brandon Jennings, Augustin followed up his 53.5-point performance with 40.5 fantasy points. Augustin had 19 points, nine assists, four rebounds and two steals against the Cavs in 36 minutes last night. While we shouldn't expect 40-plus points from him on a nightly basis, Augustin has a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. Take advantage of his depressed price tag while you can.

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PG - Langston Galloway, New York Knicks (vs. OKC), $4,300: Signed for the rest of the season after back-to-back 10-day contracts, Galloway has been one of the bright spots for the Knicks. In his past four games, he has averaged 32 minutes and nearly 30 fantasy points (29.69) per game.

PG - Brian Roberts, Charlotte Bobcats (at SA), $4,200: With Kemba Walker scheduled to have knee surgery on Wednesday, Roberts will run the point for the foreseeable future, but the best thing about him is his price. On the season, he is averaging only 0.66 fantasy points per minute, but the uptick in minutes due to his role should allow him to reach value.

[Update: Mo Williams has been ruled out for personal reasons, which means Zach LaVine gets the start with a $3,000 price tag and should see 30-plus minutes.  As I noted in my FanDuel values post, LaVine has played 30-plus minutes in 11 games.  In those games, he has scored at least 20 fantasy points 10 times and averaged 26.8 per game.]

SG - DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors (vs. SAC), $6,500: DeRozan continues to shake the rust off as he has scored at least 24 (real) points and 36.5 fantasy points in back-to-back games. The good times should continue to roll for DeRozan as the Kings have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

SG - Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers (at CLE), $6,100: Matthews has been really productive over his past five games. During that stretch, he has scored at least 28.75 fantasy points and averaged 32.25 per game. Averaging four three-pointers over that stretch, Matthews has averaged 20.2 points and 1.6 steals per game.

SG - Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks (vs. BKN), $4,800: Priced at 5.31 times his full-season production (25.5 fantasy points per game), Korver is a deadly outside shooter (and occasional high riser). Given the inconsistent nature of his game log, however, Korver is a better suited as a tournament play.

SG - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons (at PHI), $4,100: Of the shooting guards in action tonight that average at least 23 minutes per game, only Ben McLemore (0.54) averages fewer fantasy points per minute than Caldwell-Pope (0.59). That said, KCP gets nearly 32 minutes per game and a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position.

SF - Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets (at NO), $6,000: Chandler has now scored 38-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games and at least 33 fantasy points in three consecutive games. And Wilson had just shy of 33 fantasy points (32.8) the first time he played the Pelicans this season. The Pelicans have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards.

SF - Paul Pierce, Washington Wizards (at PHO), $4,700: Pierce (toe) sat out last night's game against the Lakers, but if he plays against the Suns tonight, he is one of my favorite values at small forward. Pierce has played at least 30 minutes and scored a minimum of 28.75 fantasy points in each of his past three games played. Meanwhile, the Suns have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. Since this game has a 10:30 start, we may not know his status prior to 7 PM, but you can pivot to P.J. Tucker ($4,100), if necessary, thanks to DraftKings' late-swap feature.

PF - Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. BOS), $6,400: Over his past seven games, Young has scored at least 30 fantasy points six times and has averaged 35.82 fantasy points per game. During that span, he's averaging 18.57 points, 6.14 rebounds, 4.71 assists and 1.43 steals per game.  In addition, he has played over 40 minutes in back-to-back games.

PF - Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (at HOU), $6,400: Last night, Nowitzki had a 17-game low in fantasy points (25.25). While his ceiling isn't what it once was, Nowitzki has a 25-point floor and needs 32 fantasy points to reach 5x value. During that 17-game span, he has averaged 31.38 fantasy points per game.

PF - Brandon Bass, Boston Celtics (at MIN), $4,900: Even as his price creeps up, Bass remains a solid value option at the position. Bass has scored a minimum of 22 fantasy points in six consecutive games and the T'Wolves have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.

PF - Jason Smith, New York Knicks (vs. OKC), $3,900: Playing at least 32 minutes in four consecutive games, Smith has scored more than 25 fantasy points in three of those four games. With Amar'e Stoudemire dealing with some injuries (ankle and wrist) and expected to miss some time, Smith should continue to see big minutes despite his sub-$4,000 price tag.

C - Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards (at PHO), $5,500: Gortat's production has underwhelmed recently and he's been a bit inconsistent as well -- less than 20 fantasy points in five of his past 16 games. That said, he has averaged more than 25 fantasy points per game over his past 12 games and I think he has an excellent shot to reach 5x his value tonight. Moreover, I'm not crazy about many of the other low-priced center options tonight.

C - Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. BOS), $4,900: Pekovic has now played 30-plus minutes in back-to-back games although he has averaged roughly 20 fantasy points in those two games. Pek gets a more favorable matchup tonight against the Celtics, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

[Note: Al Jefferson is priced slightly higher than my cutoff at $6,700, but he's going to start tonight and is probably my favorite play at center tonight.]

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