Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Fantasy NBA FanDuel DFS Values (Jan. 21)

Earlier today, I posted my favorite DraftKings value plays for tonight's NBA games.

As I turn my attention to FanDuel contests, there will obviously be plenty of overlap in terms of the value plays I like. Even though DraftKings and FanDuel price players independently, their price points are generally in the same ball park.

The players listed in this post will have a maximum salary of $7,000, which is slightly above the average $6,667 salary on FanDuel's nine-men rosters.

Here are some FanDuel values for Wednesday's NBA games:

PG - Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (at DET), $5,900: Payton has scored 30-plus fantasy points in three of the past four games with an average of 35 fantasy points per game over that span. Over his past four games, he is averaging 16.5 points, 7.8 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game. In those four games, Payton has double-digit points plus a minimum of four rebounds, four assists and two steals in each of those games.

PG - Jarrett Jack, Brooklyn Nets (at SAC), $6,800: With Deron Williams out for tonight's game, Jack remains a strong option among the mid-priced point guards. In his past eight games, Jack is averaging 29.76 fantasy points per game with 36-plus in half of those games including back-to-back games against the Wizards. During that eight-game span, Jack has averaged 15.63 points, 7.38 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 3.13 three-pointers in nearly 37 minutes per game. Meanwhile, the Kings have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

PG - Mo Williams, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. DAL), $6,100: Williams is coming off a disappointing performance (18 fantasy points in 29 minutes), but he had at least 25 fantasy points in the previous seven games with 42-plus points in three of them. Even though Kevin Martin is considered a game-time decision, the good news is that Ricky Rubio has been ruled out for tonight's game. This game has the second-highest over/under behind the Warriors-Rockets matchup and Williams price on FanDuel is actually $100 less than his salary on DraftKings even though the average salary per player in FanDuel is higher than it is on DraftKings ($6,250).

* FanDuel's $300K NBA Super Slam: $300,000 in prizes including $30,000 to 1st in tonight's NBA Super Slam ($25 entry).

SG - Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers (at PHO), $5,700: Matthews' minutes won't directly benefit from the injury to LaMarcus Aldridge, but his usage rate and shot attempts will. With Aldridge playing only 14 minutes before his injury on Monday, Matthews took a season-high 20 shot attempts including 12 three-point attempts. Dollar for dollar, Matthews is my favorite play among SGs tonight.

SG - Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (vs. LAL), $5,100: If Jrue Holiday (ankle) misses another game, that would benefit Gordon. Since returning from his own injury on Jan. 5th, Gordon has played 33-plus minutes in seven of eight games. In his past seven games, Gordon has scored a minimum of 22.5 fantasy points and he's averaged 27.57 per game over that span. Gordon has a solid floor, but his relatively low ceiling makes him a better play in cash games than tournaments.

SF - Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers (at PHO), $5,300: Things haven't gone so well for Batum (and his fantasy/DFS owners), but that has led to a more modest price tag. Although he has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in four consecutive games, Batum could shoulder a little more of the load with Aldridge out. In addition, the Suns play at the third-fastest pace and rank fifth in most turnovers per game (15.3) and Batum is less of a scorer and more of a player that contributes across multiple stat categories. And like Williams, Batum has a slightly lower salary on FanDuel than DraftKings, which makes him an even more appealing option on FanDuel.

SF - Jeff Green, Memphis Grizzlies (vs. TOR), $5,600: Excluding his debut with the Grizzlies, Green has scored 26.5-30 fantasy points with at least 30 minutes in his other three games with his new team. During that three-game span, he has at least 14 shot attempts each night and has posted an average of 16.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and a steal per game. The Raptors have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.

PF - Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (vs. NYK), $5,800: While he may lack some consistency, Noel has been getting consistent playing time with 30-plus minutes in six of his past seven games. Over his past four games, Noel has averaged 11.75 points, 8.25 rebounds, 2.5 steals and 2.25 blocks per game. Noel has scored at least 31.1 fantasy points in three of his past four games.

[Update: Noel (sick) has been ruled out for tonight's game.]

PF - Donatas Motiejunas, Houston Rockets (at GS), $5,600: In a game with a 218.0 over/under, there should be plenty of fantasy points tonight. Motiejunas has now scored double-digit (real) points in 12 consecutive games and has now scored at least 23 fantasy points in seven consecutive games. Against the Warriors on Jan. 17th, Motiejunas scored 28.4 fantasy points in less than 22 minutes, a 12-game low in minutes. Over the past 12 games, he has averaged nearly 30 minutes per game.

PF - Channing Frye, Orlando Magic (at DET), $4,300: This play is contingent upon the status of Tobias Harris, who is considered a game-time decision for tonight's game. If Harris can't go, Frye should continue to benefit. In the five-game stretch that Harris has missed, Frye has averaged nearly 36 minutes and 25.44 fantasy points per game. Frye's shooting percentage (15-of-51, 29.4 percent) during that stretch has been awful, but he still has a minimum of 20.1 fantasy points in those games despite poor shooting. In addition, Frye's price on FanDuel is $700 than his DraftKings price.

[Update: Harris will play, but he may come off the bench.]

C - Alex Len, Phoenix Suns (vs. POR), $5,200: With injuries to Robin Lopez and LMA, Len gets a favorable matchup against a Blazers' front court that lacks depth. Len is coming off his worst performance (20.2 fantasy points in 19 minutes) over his past seven games, but he had an average of 28.68 in his previous six games.

C - Chris Kaman, Portland Trail Blazers (at PHO), $4,400: Kaman had just 12 fantasy points in 19 minutes on MLK Jr. Day and only 18 points on the 16th against the Spurs. With the injuries in the Blazers' front court, however, Kaman should see close to 30 minutes tonight and he has averaged close to one FanDuel point per minute this season.

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