Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Feb. 11)

The good news is that it's Wednesday and we have a busy slate of games (12) tonight. The bad news is that we will go a full week without any NBA DFS contests with only one game on tap tomorrow night before the start of the All-Star break.

With that said, here are my favorite DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Wednesday's NBA games:

PG - Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic (vs. ORL), $5,400: Like any rookie, Payton has had some ups and downs this season, but he has had scored at least 28.75 fantasy points in back-to-back games and in three of his past four. Over the past month, Payton has averaged 29.13 fantasy points in 15 games. During that 15-game span, he has averaged 10.87 points, 6.73 assists, 4.13 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game. And with Tobias Harris out tonight, Payton should also see a slight bump in minutes and usage rate as well.

Others to consider: Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs ($4,900); J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks ($4,900); George Hill, Indiana Pacers ($4,900); Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics ($4,700); Ramon Sessions, Sacramento Kings ($4,200); Dante Exum, Utah Jazz ($3,300)

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SG - J.J. Redick, Los Angeles Clippers (vs. HOU), $3,300: With James Harden scoring nearly 150 fantasy points over his past two games, many will spend all the way to Harden ($10,300) at shooting guard tonight. If you're looking for a viable option at the opposite end of the price spectrum, Redick is worth a look. Returning to the starting lineup from back spasms, he scored 15 (real) points and 25.5 fantasy points in 31 minutes on Feb. 9th. Not only is his salary roughly $1,000 less than its typical range, but the Rockets have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.

Others to consider: Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves ($6,100); Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans ($5,900); Jamaal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers ($5,500); Rodney Stuckey, Indiana Pacers ($4,300); Elijah Millsap (if Joe Ingles is ruled out), Utah Jazz ($3,600); J.J. Redick, Los Angeles Clippers ($3,300); Jodie Meeks, Detroit Pistons ($3,300); Courtney Lee, Memphis Grizzlies ($3,100); Garrett Temple, Washington Wizards ($3,000)

SF - Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets (at LAC), $5,700: Ariza had just 25.75 fantasy points last night, but it was the first time in five games that he had less than 30 fantasy points. Over that five-game span, he has averaged 33.85 fantasy points, which is 5.94x tonight's salary. During that span, Ariza has averaged 15.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.4 steals per game and has connected on 15-of-32 three-point attempts. Given that the Clippers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, Ariza should reach or exceed value once again.

Others to consider: Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks ($6,500); Josh Smith, Houston Rockets ($6,400); Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves ($6,200); Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers ($5,400); C.J. Miles, Indiana Pacers ($4,300); Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves ($3,400); Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies ($3,100)

PF - Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks (vs. UTA), $6,400: With the All-Star break nearly upon us and an opportunity for Nowitzki to rest, perhaps he sees a few more minutes than typical tonight with Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler both out. In addition, Monta Ellis is considered questionable for tonight's game. Either way, Nowitzki has a rock-solid floor with a minimum of 20.75 fantasy points in 31 consecutive games. With only two games of 40-plus fantasy points during that same span, however, Nowitzki makes for a better play in cash games than tournaments.

Others to consider: David West, Indiana Pacers ($6,500); Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves ($6,000); Jason Smith, New York Knicks ($4,900); Mitch McGary, Oklahoma City Thunder ($3,800); Lance Thomas, New York Knicks ($3,200)

C - Enes Kanter, Utah Jazz (at DAL), $5,800: Kanter has three double-doubles with more than 30 fantasy points in his past four games and he has a chance to have another strong game with Tyson Chandler out. Not that I expect a DeAndre Jordan-type outing from Kanter against a Chandler-less Mavs interior defense, but Kanter has shown some significant upside with back-to-back games of 49.75 and 50 fantasy points a couple of weeks ago.

Others to consider: Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards ($5,100); Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,100); Alexis Ajinca (if Anthony Davis is out), New Orleans Pelicans ($3,800);

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