Monday, February 2, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Feb. 2)

When setting your DraftKings lineup(s) today, you will notice that all players priced at $8,700 or higher have favorable matchups tonight.

New Orleans Pelicans power forward Anthony Davis ($10,800) has the "worst" matchup of that group, but the Hawks have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. Of course, the Unibrow (and other players in his salary stratosphere) tend to be matchup-proof anyways.

The only concern for the other $10,000 guys -- LeBron James ($10,600, vs. PHI) or Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant ($10,100 and $10,000, vs. ORL) -- is the blowout potential. For at least three quarters, however, they should rack up fantasy points at an impressive clip.

In order to afford one (or more) of the high-priced studs, you'll need to find some value plays elsewhere to generate some salary-cap relief.

With that said, here are some DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Monday's NBA games:

PG - Devin Harris, Dallas Mavericks (vs. MIN), $3,100: With Rajon Rondo (face) already ruled out for Monday, Harris is expected to get the start at point for one of the league's most efficient offenses -- second only to Clippers in Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions). With a salary only $100 above the contest minimum, Harris should be a lock to reach 6x value (18.6 fantasy points) with upside for more. In his past two games, Harris has played 27 and 30 minutes and finished with 23.0 and 21.25 fantasy points, respectively.

Others to consider: Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic ($5,700); Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix Suns ($5,400); Greivis Vasquez, Toronto Raptors ($4,000); J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks ($3,000)

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SG - J.J. Redick, Los Angeles Clippers (at BKN), $3,600: It's not often that I start Redick, but he provides plenty of salary-cap relief if you want to pay up elsewhere and he should easily be able to reach value. Over the past 10 games, he has been priced between $4,000 and $4,600, which is his normally salary range. In other words, he's not usually priced below $4K. Redick needs just 18.0 fantasy points to reach 5x value, something he has done in five of his past seven games.

Others to consider: Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans ($6,200); Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards ($5,900); Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks ($5,600); Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks ($5,200); Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves ($5,100); J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers ($4,700); Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets ($4,600); O.J. Mayo, Milwaukee Bucks ($4,500); Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks ($4,000); Evan Fournier (if Oladipo is out again), Orlando Magic ($3,700)

SF - Jerami Grant, Philadelphia 76ers (at CLE), $3,000: The dropoff in small forward salaries is steep with LeBron and KD both in the five-figure range, then Andrew Wiggins at $6,900 and everybody else at $5,600 or less. If you decide to not pay up and/or punt the position, Grant provides salary-cap relief with his minimum salary and should easily reach value. Grant only gets 20-something minutes per night, but he has the rare potential for multiple three-pointers and blocked shots on any given night and has averaged 18.79 fantasy points per game over his past seven games. Grant has 16.5 fantasy points in five consecutive games and in seven of his past eight.

Others to consider: Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks ($5,300); Paul Pierce, Washington Wizards ($4,800); Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Philadelphia 76ers ($4,200); Jared Dudley, Milwaukee Bucks ($4,100); Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies ($3,000)

PF - Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers (at CLE), $5,200: In his past 10 games played, Noel has averaged 30.78 fantasy points per game, which would be nearly 6x his salary (5.92). Noel has reached at least 5x tonight's salary (26.0 points) in seven of those 10 games with some upside for 45-plus points, something he has done twice during that stretch. Over that 10-game span, Noel has averaged 9.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 2.2 blocks per game.

Others to consider: Thaddeus Young, Minnesota Timberwolves ($6,200); Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks ($6,200); Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns ($6,000); Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans ($5,600); Cody Zeller, Charlotte Bobcats ($5,500); John Henson, Milwaukee Bucks ($4,600); Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors ($4,400); Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors ($4,100);

C - Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets (vs. LAC), $6,200: It was tough choosing a "favorite" center play as I like, but don't love, all of the options I debated. Obviously, we shouldn't expect a repeat performance of Friday's 63.0-point performance in overtime, but Lopez has played at least 31 minutes and scored at least 31 fantasy points in back-to-back games. If he gets 30-plus minutes tonight versus the Clippers, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing centers, Lopez should have a chance to reach value once again.

Others to consider: Mason Plumlee, Brooklyn Nets ($5,400); Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves ($5,300); Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers ($5,000); Alex Len, Phoenix Suns ($3,500)

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