Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Fantasy NBA DraftKings DFS Values (Feb. 3)

On a five-game NBA slate on Tuesday, there are only three players priced above $8,800 -- Sacramento's DeMarcus Cousins ($10,500), Golden State's Stephen Curry ($10,300) and Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,400).

While I'll have some exposure to all three of those high-priced studs, Curry will undoubtedly be the one that I have the most in my lineups. If there's any concern, it's that this game turns into a blowout as the Warriors are favored by 9.5 points and Curry has played less than 30 minutes in two of his three matchups against the Kings this season.

That said, Curry is averaging more than 46 fantasy points per game this season, the Kings have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards and are projected to score the most points, by far, tonight based on Vegas odds.

On any given night, Curry has 60-point upside. Only three players in the league have more games with 60-plus fantasy points than Curry (seven games) -- Anthony Davis and James Harden (both 11 games) and Cousins (eight).

In order to fit Curry (and/or Boogie and/or LMA) into your lineup(s), you'll need to find some value plays elsewhere.

With that said, here are my favorite DraftKings values ($6,500 salary or less) for Tuesday's NBA games:

PG - Trey Burke, Utah Jazz (at POR), $4,600: Even if he isn't starting, Burke has played at least 31 minutes in three consecutive games. And over his past four games, Burke has scored 30.0, 20.0, 20.0 and 29.0 fantasy points, respectively, and he has been averaging 16 shot attempts per game over that stretch. Meanwhile, Damian Lillard and the Blazers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.

Others to consider: Darren Collison, Sacramento Kings ($6,400); D.J. Augustin, Detroit Pistons ($6,200); Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics ($3,700); Larry Drew, Philadelphia 76ers ($3,000)

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SG - Tyler Johnson, Miami Heat (at DET), $3,900: Listed as a point guard on FanDuel, Johnson is listed as a shooting guard on DraftKings, which makes me like him more on DK. Playing only three NBA games in his career, Johnson now has impressive back-to-back outings and scored a massive (given his minimum-salary price tag) 38.25 fantasy points on Sunday. Doing a bit of everything, he has averaged 8.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks in those two games. Far from the level of "Hassanity," Johnson has nonetheless provided the team with a spark and should continue to see minutes in the mid-20's, at least, as long as Dwyane Wade remains out.

Others to consider: Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers ($5,800); Arron Afflalo, Denver Nuggets ($5,500)

SF - Jerami Grant, Philadelphia 76ers (vs. DEN), $3,000: Listed in yesterday's post as well, Grant is once again priced at the contest-minimum salary. Grant won't see much more than 26 minutes on any given night, but he should easily reach value while providing lots of salary-cap relief. Scoring a career-high (real) 18 points and 29.75 fantasy points last night, he has connected on 8-of-11 three-point attempts over his past three games. Few players have his potential to make multiple three-pointers and block multiple shots (remember his eight blocks vs. NYK last month?) on a given night. In his past six games, Grant is averaging 20.92 fantasy points per game (6.97x his salary) with a minimum of 16.5 fantasy points (5.5x) and could approach last night's production if Michael Carter-Williams (ankle/shin) sits.

Others to consider: Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets ($5,700); Luol Deng, Miami Heat ($5,000); Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers ($4,900); Joe Ingles, Utah Jazz ($4,300)

PF - Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets (at PHI), $6,200: Too inconsistent for cash games, Faried has plenty of upside tonight as a tournament play against the Sixers, who rank last in the NBA in rebounding differential (-4.5). In addition, the Sixers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. Over his past 19 games played, The Manimal has six games with at least 40 fantasy points including games with 57.25 and 61.25 fantasy points, but he has also has six games during that span with less than 25.0. Faried needs just 31.0 fantasy points to reach 5x value and he's averaged 33.34/G during that 19-game span.

Others to consider: Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers ($5,200); Brandon Bass, Boston Celtics ($5,200); Robert Covington, Philadelphia 76ers ($5,000); Jason Smith, New York Knicks ($4,700); Louis Amundson, New York Knicks ($3,700)

C - Andrew Bogut, Golden State Warriors (at SAC), $4,800: More often than not, I'll pay up for center tonight, but Bogut could potentially see a bump in minutes from his 24 per game as they get a difficult matchup against Cousins. Bogut has been averaging a little more than one fantasy point per minute this season and he's priced at 5.4 times his average fantasy production this season (25.9/G).

Others to consider: Robin Lopez, Portland Trail Blazers ($4,500); Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets ($4,400); Tyler Zeller, Boston Celtics ($4,100);

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